San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Pick
Opening Line: 49ers -2
Time: 4:25 PM EST Sunday November 25, 2012 on FOX
The Saints (5-5) got off to a terrible start, but they have gotten back in the playoff hunt winning their last 3 games and 5 of their last 6. However, while New Orleans is back at .500 things are not all good in the Big Easy, as they only have 1 real solid win, Atlanta, and their defense ranks dead last against the run and 2nd to last against the pass.
The 49ers are at 7-2, but they may have a little QB controversy, as backup Colin Kaepernick had a stellar game on Monday night replacing the injured Alex Smith. San Fran head coach Jim Harbaugh hinted that Kaepernick may have played his way into the starting QB job even when Smith returns since he completed 16/23 passes for 243 yards and 2 TD against the Bears on Monday night.
In their last games the 49ers were impressive on both sides of the ball beating the Chicago Bears 32-7 and the Saints beat the Oakland Raiders 38-17.
The 49ers are 6-4ATS with an O/U record of 4-5-1 and the Saints are 6-4 ATS with an O/U record of 6-4.
It will be interesting to see who gets the start for the 49ers, as Smith has been playing well, but Kaepernick was awesome on Monday night. Both have a slew of targets and will be facing a weak Saints’ secondary, but Kaepernick gives the 49ers more of a rushing attack since he is a solid duel-threat QB. I would not be surprised if the 2nd year QB got the nod, as Harbaugh stated his preference is to ride "the hot hand.”
Frank Gore had a decent game facing the good rushing defense of the Bears last week, but facing the Saints he may go off. He is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and even in the win over the Raiders the Saints gave up 120 rushing yards and allowed Oakland FB Marcel Reece, who?, to rush for over 100 yards and gain over 90 yards catching out of the backfield.
For the Saints to win they obviously need a great game from Drew Brees an he has been playing well all season and only has 1 pick in his last 3 games. Both WR's in Marques Colston and Lance Moore have averaged over 14 yards per catch on the season and will face a 49ers pass defense that ranks 2nd in the league. The Saints also have to give Brees time against a solid San Francisco pass rush, especially Aldon Smith, who had 5 sacks last week.
The Saints had struggled to run the ball, but in the last 2 games they have been able to move the chains on the ground. However, Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram will be facing San Francisco and their 6th ranked run defense that played well against the Bears last week.
The 49ers are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall, 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game, and they have an Under record of 7-3 in their last 10 road games.
The Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games, and they have an Over record of 6-2 in their last 8 home games.
ATS Game Pick
Take the New Orleans Saints +2