Baltimore Ravens (9-7) at New England Patriots (10-6) Odds

Opening Line: Eagles +4 / Cowboys -4 O/U 45

Time: 8 PM EST Saturday January 9, 2010 on NBC

by Marasoft.com Staff

In the first round of the AFC Playoffs the New England Patriots host the Baltimore Ravens. The Patriots lost their last game of the season, but they lost more, as stud WR Wes Welker injured his knee and is out for the season. That may really hurt the Patriots in this game, as they will need another WR to step up. The Ravens won their last game and made the post season and if they run the ball like they did over Oakland in the season finale they have a legit shot at an upset in this game. Baltimore faces a Patriots' team that did not lose at home all season (8-0). The Ravens' defense vs. the Patriots' offense is a great match up and the unit that plays better will lead their team to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

This season New England was 8-0 at home and 8-7-1 ATS and Baltimore was 3-5 on the road and 8-6-2 ATS.

In their last games of the season the Patriots lost to the Houston Texans 34-27 while the Ravens beat the Oakland Raiders 21-13.

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The Patriots have the league's 3rd ranked offense and the loss of Welker means Brady does not have one of his main targets. Luckily for the Pats, they still have Randy Moss and RB Fred Taylor is back in the backfield after missing several games due to a knee injury. Welker has been a rock for the Pats for some time and it remains to be seen if Brady and company can light up the scoreboard without him on the field. The Ravens have the league's 3rd ranked defense and they are solid defending both the pass and the run. If the Ravens can contain Brady and make this a low scoring game Baltimore can win this game.

The Ravens are led by Joe Flacco, but the key offensive cog in this game may be RB Willis McGahee. He had 167 rushing yards in the last game of the season and he averaged a very impressive 10.4 yards per carry in the game. If he ruins like that again and the Pats can't stop him then New England may be in trouble. The Pats' defense, which ranks 11th in the league, has to contain the Ravens' rushing attack and make Flacco beat them with his arm. Flacco does have a decent WR corps, but if Baltimore can't run the ball they will be in trouble.

Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0 points and is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff road games.

New England is 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC teams and is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.

The Marasoft Pick: Baltimore +3.5