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Northwestern Wildcats (6-2) +6.5 at No. 17 Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-1) -6.5
12pm ET, Saturday, November 1, 2008 - The Metrodome, Minneapolis, MN ESPN2
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Minneapolis is the site for a Saturday match between sup rising Big Ten contenders, as the Northwestern Wildcats travel to the Metrodome to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Both teams have surpassed preseason expectations and currently sit in the fourth and fifth spots in the conference ranks. A win for either team will keep hope alive for a New Years Day Bowl, while the loser will lose fall another step behind the Big Ten leaders. The game kicks at 11am local time and can be seen on ESPN2.

Vegas opened the line with Minnesota a 7 point favorite and the line has dropped a half point to 6.5 at most college football sportsbooks, including the offshores. The over/under total for the game is at 44 and the moneyline has Minnesota at -260 with Northwestern at +220.

Northwestern got off to a great start, going 5-0 to start the season, but has dropped two of the last three to come in at 6-2. The Wildcats opened the conference portion of their schedule with a quality win at Iowa but have dropped games versus Michigan State and Indiana to level their Big Ten mark at 2-2. The Cats are 2-1 on the road in '08 and own a 3-4 against the spread mark overall. Northwestern currently sits behind Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State and Minnesota in the conference and are one game clear of 6th place Iowa. A win on Saturday would probably qualify as the best win on the season so far and go a long way to staking a claim for a relevant '08 for Nortwestern.

Minnesota got off to a hot start as well, going undefeated in non-conference play before dropping a 34-21 decision at Ohio State in their Big Ten opener. The Gophers have rebounded nicely, winning their next three games, including the last two on the road, at Illinois and Purdue. Minnesota is 4-0 at the Metrodome this year and has built a nice 6-1 mark against the spread in '08. The Gophers sit only a game behind Michigan St and Ohio State in the Big Ten and look to position themselves for a possible No. 3 seed for the bowl selections as Penn State and Ohio State could easily be BCS bound.

Northwestern has gone about winning with a consistent team effort that is more workman-like than flashy. The Wildcats sit right in the middle of the NCAA pack in points scored per game (26.5) as well as rushing, passing and total yards ranks. NW has been balanced on offense while averaging 157 yards on the ground and 221 through the air, while making a few key plays in the right spots on the way to victories. The Wildcat defense is solid against the run, allowing just over 114 yards to opposing rushers while giving up a 71st ranked, 212 yards via the pass and 18.2 points per game. The big question for Northwestern this week will be finding a scoring solution without standout running back, Tyrell Sutton, who will miss the game and likely the rest of the year with a wrist injury.

C.J. Bacher is the leader at quarterback, but he may also miss the game with a leg injury sustained in the fourth quarter of the Indiana game. Bacher is currently listed as questionable for the game and Mike Kafka would be pressed to action in Bacher's absence. Omar Conteh will be charged with replacing Sutton's 5.0 yards per carry average and 8 total touchdowns. Conteh has seen significant time in years past and currently has 223 yards on 61 carries with 3 TD's on the year. Receivers, Ross Lane and Eric Peterman will be counted on to help shoulder the offensive load should with the injuries. They have combined for 68 receptions, 732 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Minnesota is very similar to Nortwestern in offensive ranks, with the Gophers averaging 356 total yards and 28.2 points per contest. Minnesota is marginally better in the passing game, averaging 229 yards while rushing for 126 per game. The Gopher defense ranks slightly worse than Northwestern's, especially against the pass, giving up a 95th ranked 241 yards per game. Minnesota plays a bend, don't break style however, giving up a 21st best, 17.1 points per game. The spotty play of the Gopher secondary could be covered up by the absence of Sutton and especially Bacher, should he not be able to go.

Adam Weber has provided solid quarterback play on the year, completing over 67% of his passes for 1824 yards while throwing 10 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions. DeLeon Eskridge is the leading ball carrier for Minnesota and while the 3.8 yards per carry average is nothing special, he has found the endzone on 7 occasions and adds a receiving option out of the backfield with 20 catches on the year. Eric Decker is by far the main weapon for the Gopher offense, grabbing 66 balls for 833 yards and 5 touchdowns while adding another 82 yards and 1 touchdown via the rush. Adam Weber is the only notable name on the Minnesota injury report, but is expected to play after taking a blow to the face.

Predictem Pick:
Even without the injuries, it would be hard to see Northwestern taking this game in Minnesota given the Wildcat's 1-4 against the spread mark in their last five road contests. Add that to Minnesota's 6-0 ATS mark in the last six conference matchups and this one looks like a nice win for the Gophers. The Wildcats should be able to move the ball against a pedestrian Gopher defense, but keeping points off the board is what Minnesota does and Northwestern is without it's most dynamic player. Look for a close one to the half with the Gophers stretching a bit in the second half and taking a 27-13 victory.

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