Football Betting Preview

New York Jets (8-4) -4, 44.5 O/U at San Francisco 49ers (4-8) +4, 44.5 O/U
Candlestick Park, San Francisco, Calif., 4:05 PM Eastern, Sunday, CBS
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The New York Jets hope to reverse their West Coast losing ways this weekend when they travel to California one more time to face the San Francisco 49ers in Candlestick Park Sunday on CBS.

The Jets have been to Cali twice already this season, and both times they left on the short end of the scoreboard, losing to Oakland (16-13 in week 7) and San Diego (48-29 in week 3) in dramatic and lopsided fashion. Prior to last Sunday’s 34-17 dud at home versus the Denver Broncos, the Jets were the hottest team in the NFL, winning five straight including a 34-13 thrashing of the Tennessee Titans two weeks ago to knock off the NFL’s last remaining unbeaten team.

The 49ers have shown solid signs of improvement since head coach Mike Singletary took over for Mike Nolan at midseason. Those signs were on full display last week when the 49ers were outgained 350 yards-to-195 yards on offense but still slipped away with a hard-fought 10-3 road victory over the Buffalo Bills. It gave them their second victory in three games to double their win total for the season, so things are certainly looking up for the storied franchise on the Bay.

Oddsmakers opened the game with the Jets as 4-point favorites and the number has held for the most part, although there are several offshore sportsbooks that have dropped it down to 3.5. The total opened at 44.5 and it has also held firm through early betting. The moneyline lists the Jets as -190 favorites, with the 49ers as +165 underdogs.

The addition of quarterback Brett Favre to the Jets offense has opened up the passing game more this season (214.3 ypg – 13th), but it’s his presence along with a revamped offensive line that has really sparked the Jets running game. Thomas Jones has enjoyed a rebirth at running back this season, and at 132.1 yards per game (8th) the ground attack has been the catalyst for the Jets playoff push this season. It helps that Favre can still throw the deep ball too, as the Jets now have the quick-strike ability they’ve lacked in previous years at it’s showing up on the scoreboard each week (28.3 ppg – 2nd).

The 49ers offense has also enjoyed a rebirth of sorts under a new quarterback, but that quarterback is Shaun Hill and not a gray- bearded veteran. Since Hill was inserted into the lineup over J.T. O’Sullivan, the 49ers have gone 2-2 and the offense has taken care of the football better (7 TD, 3 INT) with better passing accuracy (60.4 comp %, 94.6 QB rating).

But even the presence of Hill hasn’t been able to light a fire under running back Frank Gore and the 49ers rushing attack. Gore was expected to have a breakout year this season, but with 927 yards and seven touchdowns, Gore has been a disappointment and the 49ers 93.6 rushing yards per game (25th) hasn’t been enough to take the pressure off of the passing game.

The Jets have had a problem on defense, and their season-long numbers point to the fact that they are very Jekyll and Hyde like. The Jets strong run defense (82.1 ypg – 4th) would be the Jekyll, and their porous pass defense (249.2 ypg – 30th) would be the Hyde. Last week the Broncos had 484 total yards against the Jets, and 359 of them came in the air.

As mentioned, the 49ers allowed 350 yards of offense versus the Bills last week and still found a way to win, so you have to give them credit for that. But on the season, their just 23rd overall (347.9 ypg) and 28th against the pass (239.8 ypg) and in points allowed (26.1 ppg).

The Jets and 49ers have met just six times since the 1986 season, and the 49ers have won all but one of those six games. The lone Jets victory was the last time they played, a 22-14 victory at home in the Meadowlands back in October of 2004. Only two of the six games were played in San Francisco, and the 49ers won them both. The 49ers also own a 5-1 ATS record in the short six game series as well.

At 7-5 ATS the Jets are making a profit for bettors so far this season, and they are a strong 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. But both of those non-covers on the road were this season, and both were in California to the aforementioned Chargers and Raiders.

San Francisco is 5-7 ATS this year, and just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games at home in Candlestick. But they have covered in three of their four games under Singletary.

Both teams are 7-4-1 against the total this season so far, and the over looks like another strong play this week. The over is 5-0-1 in the Jets last six games overall and is 4-0 in the last four games the Jets have played on grass. The over is also 4-0 in the 49ers last four games at Candlestick and is 6-2 in their last eight games overall.

Predictem Pick:
Both teams lack a pass rush and have trouble defending the pass, so I’m expecting a pass-happy scheme from both offensive coordinators in this game, especially San Fran’s Mike Martz. The Jets may have trouble on the West Coast, but I still expect them to score, so I’m taking the over of 44.5 here.