NFL Margin Of Victory

I had a friend of mine ask me this question last year. How often in the NFL does the final winning margin fall on 3 or 7? While I did have a general idea of the numbers, it had been years since I had actually compiled a list of the NFL betting numbers and how often a game falls on a certain point spread.

The list below of the NFL games winning margin numbers shows that 3 points is the most common followed by 7 points. No surprises there. However, I noticed a few handicapping tidbits that support my opinion of fading the point spread favorite in the NFL or don't play the game at all.

In the last twenty years 46.12% of all the NFL regular season games were decided by 7 or less points and 23.59% of the football games were decided by 3 or less. You may think that those numbers support playing the betting line fav, but you haven't factored in that the dogs will win approximately 50% of the games over the course of most seasons. If I've lost you with the math then make sure that you visit leading into the NFL football season as I will break down the winning percent of teams laying points over the last 5 years.

  • 0 points 0.20%
  • 1 point 4.27%
  • 2 pts 3.74%
  • 3 pts 15.38%
  • 4 pts 5.58%
  • 5 pts 3.15%
  • 6 pts 5.76%
  • 7 pts 8.04%
  • 8 pts 2.56%
  • 9 pts 1.83%
  • 10 pts 5.80%
  • 11 pts 3.28%
  • 12 pts 1.63%
  • 13 pts 3.13%
  • 14 pts 4.66%
  • 15 pts 1.63%
  • 16 pts 2.22%
  • 17 pts 3.85%
  • 18 pts 2.10%
  • 19 pts 1.80%
  • 20 pts 2.62%
  • 21 pts 2.62%
  • 22 pts 0.83%
  • 23 pts 1.20%
  • 24 pts 2.12%
  • 25 pts 0.92%
  • 26 pts 0.65%
  • 27 pts 1.67%
  • 28 pts 1.49%
  • 29 pts 0.31%
  • 30 pts 0.59%
  • 31 pts 1.18%
  • 32 pts 0.55%
  • 33 pts 0.26%
  • 34 pts 0.63%
  • 35 pts 0.57%

Predictions

NFL Preseason: Contrary to popular belief, NFL pre-season bets are some of the easiest football wagers to cash in on! Some coaches actually divulge their game plan prior to the game! Smash your bookie in the mouth by coat tailing our plays!

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