NFL Margin Of Victory

I had a friend of mine ask me this question last year. How often in the NFL does the final winning margin fall on 3 or 7? While I did have a general idea of the numbers, it had been years since I had actually compiled a list of the NFL betting numbers and how often a game falls on a certain point spread.

The list below of the NFL games winning margin numbers shows that 3 points is the most common followed by 7 points. No surprises there. However, I noticed a few handicapping tidbits that support my opinion of fading the point spread favorite in the NFL or don't play the game at all.

In the last twenty years 46.12% of all the NFL regular season games were decided by 7 or less points and 23.59% of the football games were decided by 3 or less. You may think that those numbers support playing the betting line fav, but you haven't factored in that the dogs will win approximately 50% of the games over the course of most seasons. If I've lost you with the math then make sure that you visit leading into the NFL football season as I will break down the winning percent of teams laying points over the last 5 years.

  • 0 points 0.20%
  • 1 point 4.27%
  • 2 pts 3.74%
  • 3 pts 15.38%
  • 4 pts 5.58%
  • 5 pts 3.15%
  • 6 pts 5.76%
  • 7 pts 8.04%
  • 8 pts 2.56%
  • 9 pts 1.83%
  • 10 pts 5.80%
  • 11 pts 3.28%
  • 12 pts 1.63%
  • 13 pts 3.13%
  • 14 pts 4.66%
  • 15 pts 1.63%
  • 16 pts 2.22%
  • 17 pts 3.85%
  • 18 pts 2.10%
  • 19 pts 1.80%
  • 20 pts 2.62%
  • 21 pts 2.62%
  • 22 pts 0.83%
  • 23 pts 1.20%
  • 24 pts 2.12%
  • 25 pts 0.92%
  • 26 pts 0.65%
  • 27 pts 1.67%
  • 28 pts 1.49%
  • 29 pts 0.31%
  • 30 pts 0.59%
  • 31 pts 1.18%
  • 32 pts 0.55%
  • 33 pts 0.26%
  • 34 pts 0.63%
  • 35 pts 0.57%
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