I had a friend of mine ask me this question last year. How often in the NFL does the final winning margin fall on 3 or 7? While I did have a general idea of the numbers, it had been years since I had actually compiled a list of the NFL betting numbers and how often a game falls on a certain point spread.
The list below of the NFL games winning margin numbers shows that 3 points is the most common followed by 7 points. No surprises there. However, I noticed a few handicapping tidbits that support my opinion of fading the point spread favorite in the NFL or don't play the game at all.
In the last twenty years 46.12% of all the NFL regular season games were decided by 7 or less points and 23.59% of the football games were decided by 3 or less. You may think that those numbers support playing the betting line fav, but you haven't factored in that the dogs will win approximately 50% of the games over the course of most seasons. If I've lost you with the math then make sure that you visit leading into the NFL football season as I will break down the winning percent of teams laying points over the last 5 years.
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