NFL MARGIN OF VICTORY

I had a friend of mine asked me this question last year. How often in the NFL does the final winning margin fall on 3 or 7? While I did have a general idea of the numbers, it had been years since I had actually compiled a list of the NFL betting numbers and how often a game falls on a certain point spread.

The list below of the NFL games winning margin numbers shows that 3 points is the most common followed by 7 points. No surprises there. However, I noticed a few handicapping tidbits that support my opinion of fading the point spread favorite in the NFL or don't play the game at all.

In the last twenty years 46.12% of all the NFL regular season games were decided by 7 or less points and 23.59% of the football games were decided by 3 or less. You may think that those numbers support playing the betting line fav, but you haven't factored in that the dogs will win approximately 50% of the games over the course of most seasons. If I've lost you with the math then make sure that you visit leading into the NFL football season as I will break down the winning percent of teams laying points over the last 5 years.

0 points 0.20%

1 point 4.27%

2 pts 3.74%

3 pts 15.38%

4 pts 5.58%

5 pts 3.15%

6 pts 5.76%

7 pts 8.04%

8 pts 2.56%

9 pts 1.83%

10 pts 5.80%

11 pts 3.28%

12 pts 1.63%

13 pts 3.13%

14 pts 4.66%

15 pts 1.63%

16 pts 2.22%

17 pts 3.85%

18 pts 2.10%

19 pts 1.80%

20 pts 2.62%

21 pts 2.62%

22 pts 0.83%

23 pts 1.20%

24 pts 2.12%

25 pts 0.92%

26 pts 0.65%

27 pts 1.67%

28 pts 1.49%

29 pts 0.31%

30 pts 0.59%

31 pts 1.18%

32 pts 0.55%

33 pts 0.26%

34 pts 0.63%

35 pts 0.57%