New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Pick

Betting Odds

Opening Line: Patriots -4
Over/Under: 50.5

Time: 1 PM EST Sunday September 30, 2011 on CBS

The Pats have not gotten off to a good start losing 2 of their 3 games and their pass defense has really hurt them. The Bills are atop the AFC East and they have won 2 straight and they can prove they are for real with a win over the Patriots. However, one of the reasons the Bills are winning is the play of RB C.J. Spiller and he is questionable for this big division match up with a shoulder injury.

In their last games the Bills beat the Cleveland Browns 24-14 while the Pats lost to the Baltimore Ravens 31-30.

This season the Patriots are 2-1 ATS with an O/U record of 1-2 and the Bills are 2-1 ATS with an O/U record of 2-1.

Tom Brady has been putting up solid numbers and in the loss to Baltimore he passed for over 300 yards. Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker each had over 100 receiving yards and they will be a handful for a Bills' pass defense that shut down Cleveland's Brandon Weeden, but only ranks 19th in the league overall. Brady has been playing well, but after 3 games he only has 4 passing TD's.

The Pats struggled to run the ball against Baltimore with Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead each failing to average over 3 yards per carry. The Bills have been mediocre defending the run this season ranking 14th in the league and in their first 3 games they have only faced one team that can run the ball well in the Chiefs.

With Spiller a question mark for this game Bills' QB Ryan Fitzpatrick may have to shoulder more of the offensive load. He passed for 208 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT in the win over Cleveland and will be facing a struggling Pats' pass defense that only ranks 24th in the league and was torched last week by Baltimore's Joe Flacco.

If Spiller cannot go Tashard Choice will get the start in the backfield and in the Browns win he was solid with 91 rushing yards averaging 4.6 yards per carry. While the Pats have struggled to defend the pass they have played good run defense.

The Patriots offensive line has to play well against a Bills pass rush that ranks 6th in the league with 9 sacks.

Betting Trends

The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and they have an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 road games.

The Bills are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, and they have an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 games.

The Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against the Bills in Buffalo.

ATS Game Pick

The Ravens exposed the weakness in the Patriots defense and we expect the Bills to follow Baltimore's lead and run the ball down their throats. New England hasn't faced a quality defensive line this season. Look for this game to stay under the inflated total.
Take the UNDER 50.5