Miami Hurricanes vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Pick

Betting Odds

Opening Line: Miami -8
Over/Under: 63.5

Time: 7:30 PM EST Thursday October 17, 2013 on ESPN / WatchESPN

The Tar Heels have lost 3 straight games and their only win of the season came again a less than powerhouse team in Middle Tennessee. While they have a good passing offense they only rank 114th in the nation in rushing yards per game and the reason they are losing is their defense, which ranks 95th in the nation.

In their last games Miami beat Georgia Tech 45-30 and North Carolina lost to Virginia Tech 27-17.

Miami is 4-1 ATS with an Over/Under record of 3-2 and UNC is 1-4 ATS with an Over/Under record of 1-4.

The Hurricanes defense really has their work cut out for them in this game facing Miami QB Stephen Morris and RB Duke Johnson. Morris has a solid WR corps and in the Georgia Tech game he passed for 324 yards with 3 TD and 2 INT. Johnson ranks 9th in the nation in all-purpose yards per game and in the Tech win he rushed for 184 yards and had 114 combined yards on kickoff returns.

North Carolina only ranks 101st in the nation in run defense and if Johnson has another big game the Tar Heels will lose.

UNC QB Bryn Renner should be back under center in this game after sitting out the last one with an ankle injury. He has passed for 1,117 yards with 7 TD and 3 INT this season and he has a couple of solid targets in TE Eric Ebron (23 rec 333 yards 2 TD) and WR Quinshad Davis (19 rec 298 yards 4 TD). Miami has the top ranked pass defense in the nation and not only that, but they rank 13th in sacks.

Miami ranks 69th in the nation in run defense, but will the Tar Heels be able to exploit the weakness of the Canes' D? A.J. Blue has really struggled in the last couple of games and for the season is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry. 2nd leading UNC RB Romar Morris is banged up and only had 2 rushing yards in the loss to Virginia Tech.

UNC has lost 6 straight games to teams ranked in the top 10.

Betting Trends

Miami is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, -0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, and they have an Over record of 6-1 in their last 7 road games.

North Carolina is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall, and they have an Over record of 6-1 in their last 7 home games.

The Underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 games between these 2 teams.

Against the Spread Pick

Take the Miami Hurricanes - 9.5 at Gtbets

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