Kansas State Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Betting Pick
Opening Line: Kansas State -6.5
Time: 12 PM EST Saturday October 13, 2012 on FX
Iowa State (4-1) may have showed they are for real this season beating a ranked TCU team in their last game and now they host Kansas State (5-0), who are tied with West Virginia atop the Big 12. The Cyclones ran into a little luck in the win over TCU since starting Horned Frogs QB Casey Pachall was suspended, but they still played a good game on offense and they forced 5 turnovers. To win this game they will have to play great D facing a KSU rushing offense that ranks 9th in the nation.
In their last games Kansas State crushed Kansas 56-16 and Iowa State beat TCU 37-23.
Kansas State is 4-1 ATS with an O/U record of 3-1 and Iowa State is 3-2 ATS with an O/U record of 2-2.
The key match up in this game will Kansas State and their great rushing offense facing Iowa State and their 30th ranked rushing defense. KSU RB John Hubert has rushed for over 100 yards in 4 of 5 games this season, including his last 2, and for the season is averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Duel threat QB is the 2nd leading rusher, who rushed for over 100 yards last week.
Klein can air it out with 887 passing yards with 7 TD, but the KSU passing offense only ranks 111th in the nation and they have to run the ball to win.
Iowa State is led by their 16th ranked D, as they only rank 91st in the nation in passing yards per game and 69th in rushing yards per game. Jared Barnett made his first start of the season last week and had 183 passing yards with 3 TD and 1 INT. The Cyclones may pass more in this game, as the KSU pass defense only ranks 90th in the nation. Josh Lenz is the leading ISU WR and last week he had 3 receiving TDís.
RBís James White and Shontrelle Johnson have each rushed for over 200 yards on the season and they will face a solid Kansas run defense that ranks 20th in the nation.
The Iowa State offensive line must play well and Kansas has a good pass rush with 13 sacks on the season. The Wildcats have to pressure Barnett in this game to take some pressure off their secondary.
Last season Kansas State beat Iowa State 30-23 and they have not lost to the Cyclones since the 2007 season.Betting Trends
Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, and they have an Over record of 9-3 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.
Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games, 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, an they have an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games between these 2 Big 12 rivals.
ATS Game Pick
The Cyclones have played well this season excluding their away game at Texas Tech. Kansas State is a strong team, but we feel that the linesmaker was too generous with this line and that the betting value is with Iowa State.
Take Iowa State +6.5