Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Betting
Point Spread Line: Patriots -6.5
Moneyline: Baltimore +245 / New England -265
Time: 6:40 PM EST Sunday January 18, 2015 on CBS
Well, the young Colts' QB Andrew Luck is making his first appearance in the AFC title game after beating Peyton Manning and the Broncos last week, but can they win on the road again facing Tom Brady and the Patriots? Odds makers don't think so having the Pats as 7.5-point home favorites.
Luck played well, but did not have a huge game facing the Broncos and he was picked off 2 times. The defense for Indianapolis was the main reason they beat Denver and their D has a tall task this Sunday facing a New England team that put up 35 points in their last game. That is an understatement, as in the middle of the season in Indianapolis the Pats crushed the Colts winning 42-20.
Brady passed for 367 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT in the win over the Ravens last week and he had to have a big game since the rushing offense was non-existent.
In their last games the Patriots beat the Baltimore Ravens 35-31 and the Colts beat the Denver Broncos 24-13.
The Colts are 12-5-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 9-9 and the Patriots are 9-8 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 10-7.
This season the Patriots are 8-1 at home and the Colts are 6-3 on the road.
Brady attempted 50 passes in the win over the Ravens with TE Rob Gronkowski leading the way with 108 receiving yards. While Brady does not have the best WR corps they have gotten the job done and WR Danny Amendola had the 5th most receiving yards on the season, but was the 2nd leading WR in the Ravens game and had 2 TD. The Colts' pass defense ranks 12th in the league, but played solid against Manning being physical with his targets, which they must do in this game.
Brady got no help from the rushing offense in the Ravens' win, as New England had a grand total of 14 yards. The Colts and their 18th ranked run defense held the Broncos to 88 rushing yards, but it is pretty obvious they have to key on Brady.
Luck was 27/43 for 265 yards with 2 TD and 2 INT in the win over Denver and his offensive line played great not giving up a single sack. Leading WR T/Y Hilton is his main target, but Reggie Wayne and Coby Fleener are both solid and will face a New England pass defense that ranks 17th in the league. While Pats' pass D had 2 picks in the Baltimore game they gave up nearly 300 passing yards and 4 TD and their pass rush struggled and did not have a sack.
Last week the Colts tried to run the ball with Daniel Herron to keep Manning off the field and while he did go for 63 yards and a TD he only averaged 2.8 yards per carry. The New England run defense ranks 9th in the league, but they gave up 136 rushing yards in the Ravens' game.
Baltimore: 11-5 SU 10-5-1 ATS
New England: 12-4 SU 9-7 ATS
The Colts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win, and they have an Under record of 6-0 in their last 6 games.
The Patriots are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 playoff home games, 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games overall, and they have an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 games.
In the last 6 games between these 2 teams the total has gone Over every time.
New England: 28.83
Free Pick Against the Spread
The Patriots easily handled the Colts earlier this season in Indianapolis 42-20 amassing 501 yards versus the Colts' 322. The New England secondary had some lapses against the Ravens, they're unlikely to have two consecutive under par performances.
Our Crew's Pick: Take the New England Patriots -6.5