Football Betting Preview

Green Bay Packers (4-3) +5.5 at Tennessee Titans (7-0) -5.5, 41.5 o/u
Sunday, November 2, 2008 - 1pm ET, LP Field, Nashville, TN - FOX
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The Green Bay Packers travel to Nashville Sunday to take on the undefeated Tennessee Titans in a cross conference battle. The Packers have been hot and cold in their first Favre-less season but remain in a tie atop the NFC North at 4-3, and will pose a strong test for the Titans. Tennessee remains one of the top stories in the NFL this year, moving through the first seven contests without a loss and hold a large lead in the AFC South. The game kicks off at 1pm ET and will be seen on FOX.


Vegas opened with the Titans as 5 point favorites, with most of the offshores adding a half point throughout the week and a few sportsbooks moving all the way to 6. The moneyline has the Titans at -240 or -245 with the Packers around +200. The over/under total for the game is typically 41.5 or 42.


The Packers got off to a hot start by winning their first two games in the Aaron Rodgers era, but promptly hit the skids, losing the next three in a row. Green Bay has found its groove with two straight wins against Seattle and Indianapolis heading into last week's bye, and are a game squad on the road this year with a 2-1 record as visitors. The Packers match their overall record with a 4-3 against the spread mark and sport the same 2-1 ATS road record. The Packers need a win to ensure they stay tied with the Bears for first in the North and maintain the one game lead over the trailing Vikings.


Tennessee started off the year with good wins against Jacksonville and Cincinnati and have never looked back. After a bye in week 6, the Titans have reeled off 31+ points in consecutive wins against Kansas City and Indianapolis to continue their torrid pace and now sit four full games ahead of the remainder of the AFC South. While the Titans can afford to lose a few and still be in good shape, don't expect Jeff Fisher to let his team coast in the back half of the season or let the chase for a perfect season get in the way of fundamental football. Coach Fisher has also reaped the rewards of handing over the reigns to Kerry Collins and benching a under-performing Vince Young.


A few key trends to watch in this matchup are Green Bay's 11-3-1 road ATS record compiled over the last two seasons and the fact that the Titans have covered the spread in all seven games this year. The Packers offense has not missed Brett Favre much, racking up points in most games and pushing the total to the over in five of seven games. The Tennessee run attack is more than a ball control philosophy, they know how to find the end zone and have hit the over in four of seven.


Green Bay has been a similar model to the Packer team of last year, with the running game struggling, leaving the bulk of the scoring to the air attack. The Packers rank 23rd in rushing yards at just over 100 per game, but sit 10th at 227 yards passing and average 27.7 points per contest. The Green Bay defense has been average as a unit, with a few players having nice years, and injuries forcing back-ups into action. The defense ranks a solid 6th in pass yards allowed, but is only 25th in stopping the run which could prove deadly against the run-heavy Titans. The Packers do give up some points as well, ranking 16th while allowing almost 23 per game.


Aaron Rodgers has played well in his first season as a starter, completing nearly 66% of his passes for 1668 yards and throwing 12 touchdowns against 4 picks. Ryan Grant has been slowed by nagging injuries but leads the team in rushing at 464 yards with Brandon Jackson taking over the third down back duties as a capable receiver. Greg Jennings is ascending to Pro Bowl receiver levels with his 37 grabs for 685 yards, an 18.5 per catch average, and 4 TD's on the year while Donald Driver provides a reliable possession option for Rodgers, grabbing 29 passes and 2 touchdowns so far. The defense is led by athletic linebackers in Nick Barnett, the teams leading tackler and A.J. Hawk. Charles Woodson is having a fine season with four interceptions, two for touchdowns and Aaron Kampman will look to add to his 6 sacks.


The Titans have come through some QB issues just fine, utilizing Kerry Collins as a game manager and relying on a commitment to the run. Tennessee is 27th in passing at 165 yards per game but 4th in rushing with 144 yards on the ground on average. On the year, the Titans are putting up 25.7 points per game. The defense is among the league's best, giving up only 275 total yards, good for 4th and ranking 1st in points allowed at just over 12. The Titans defense as whole ranks inside the top-10 in nearly all relevant stat categories.


Kerry Collins is asked to make a few throws each game in critical spots, and has done so, tallying 1060 yards on 58.5% completions and throwing for 3 TD's and 3 INT's. Chris Johnson leads the team in rushing with 626 yards on a sparkling 5.1 per carry average, finding the end zone on four occasions while LenDale White takes the short yardage duties and leads the team with 10 touchdowns. Tight end Bo Scaife has provided Collins with a reliable outlet and leads all Titan receivers with 28 grabs for 318 yards and 1 TD. Justin Gage is returning from injury and is the team's most athletic option at wideout. Albert Haynesworth has recorded 6 sacks from the tackle position and is gaining MVP consideration while Cortland Finnegan has picked off four balls and returned one for a score.


The Green Bay injury report is littered with questionable players, including Atari Bigby and Al Harris, although the Harris injury was thought to be season ending at the time. The bye week should have most Packers ready to play and there is no anticipation of any impact player missing the game on Sunday. The Titans report Kyle Vanden Bosch, Reynaldo Hill and Colin Allred as day-to-day to complete their injury sheet.

Predictem Pick:
I like the Packers with the points in this one given the two weeks to prepare and heal up Rodger's shoulder. The Titans are 0 for the last 5 against the spread following a Monday Night contest and they have to come down a bit after beating a big rival in the Colts. I can see Tennessee keeping the winning streak alive with a late field goal, but I'll take the Green and Gold and the 5 and a half.