Florida State Seminoles at Florida Preview

Opening Line: Tigers +10.5 / Crimson Tide -10.5
3:30 PM EST Saturday November 29, 2009 on CBS

by Marasoft.com Staff

This Saturday afternoon in the Swamp the top-ranked Florida Gators host in-state rival Florida State. The Seminoles owned the 90's as one of the elite teams in the nation while this decade has belonged to the Gators, as they looks to repeat as national champions. However, even though they will play in the SEC championship game next week against Alabama they may miss out on the BCS title game if they lose this game. FSU does have some solid wins this season, BYU and North Carolina, and they have won 2 in a row, but they will have to win this game without their star QB Christian Ponder, who is out for the season with an injured shoulder. FSU is already bowl eligible with 6 wins, but if they lose this game they will be below .500 in ACC play and they will only get a minor bowl game that will probably not be played near New Year's Day.

Last week the Gators crushed Florida International 62-3 while the Seminoles beat Maryland 29-26 to become bowl eligible.

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The Gators are led by Heisman candidate QB Tim Tebow (1,945 yds 14 TD 4 INT) and his main targets are WR Riley Cooper (38 rec 641 yds 7 TD) and TE Aaron Hernandez (46 rec 571 yds 2 TD). The Gators' rushing attack is also led by Tebow (706 yds 11 TD), but he is not the only rusher, as RB Jeffery Demps (623 yds 7 TD) can also move the chains on the ground. With Ponder out the Seminoles are led by freshman QB E.J. Manuel (430 yds 1 TD 4 INT) and his main targets are Bert Reed (53 rec 671 yds) and Rod Owens (652 yds 3 TD). The Seminoles' rushing attack is led by RB Jermaine Thomas (690 yds 7 TD).

Since Ponder is out the Seminoles may rely more on the rushing offense, which only ranks 59th in the nation. Picking up yards on the ground on the Florida D will not be easy, as they have the nation's 2nd ranked defense and 7th ranked rushing defense only giving up an average of 90.55 yards per game. Manuel is a highly touted QB, but he will be facing a tough Florida D that ranks 18th in the nation with 30 sacks. The FSU offensive line has to protect Manuel in this game and open up holes for Thomas.

The Gators' offense is all about the run, as they have the nation's 9th ranked rushing offense and they rank 10th in the nation in points scored per game. This is not a good match up for the Seminoles, as they only rank 106th in the nation in overall defense and 105th in rushing defense giving up an average of 193.45 yards per game on the ground. Tebow and the Gators' rushing offense is hard to stop and they will be facing a Seminoles' D that has struggled all season.

The Seminoles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games and the total has gone Over in 6 of their last 7 games. The Gators are only 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 games and have won 5 in a row against FSU.

This is the last game of the season for both teams and a huge rivalry. However, with Ponder out and a weak defense, not to mention playing at the Swamp, the chances are very slim that FSU can pull off the upset this Saturday afternoon.

The Marasoft Pick: Florida State +23