Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys Point Spread Pick
Point Spread Line: Dallas -6.5
Moneyline: Detroit +260 / Dallas -290
Time: 4:40 PM EST Sunday January 4, 2014 on FOX
The Lions are really fortunate that the league overturned the suspension of Ndamukong Suh, who will play in this playoff game and will anchor the league's No. 1 ranked run defense and pass rush that has the 8th most sacks in the league. Still, the Cowboys ended the season well and they are the 7-point home favorite.
Dallas won their last 4 games of the season, but they suffered 4 of their 5 losses at home this season. While Tony Romo and Matthew Stafford get a lot of press for their respective teams the big match up in this game will be the Lions run defense facing DeMarco Murray and the # 1 ranked rushing offense of the Cowboys.
In their last games the Cowboys beat the Washington Redskins 44-17 and the Lions lost to the Green Bay Packers 30-20.
The Lions are 7-9 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 5-11 and the Cowboys are 10-6 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 9-6-1.
On the season the Cowboys are 4-4 at home and the Lions are 4-4 on the road.
While the Cowboys were less than stellar at home this season the Lions were not great on the road. Not only have the Lions not won a playoff game since the 1992 season, but also Stafford is 0-7 in his last 17 road games facing a team that has a winning record.
Stafford has had a solid season and he has a great WR tandem in Golden Tate and Megatron i.e. Calvin Johnson. He needs to find Johnson to make big plays like he did last season facing Dallas when the WR torched the Cowboys' secondary to the tune of 329 receiving yards. The Cowboys only rank 26th in the league defending the pass and their pass rush struggled this season with the 28th most sacks.
Joique Bell has not had a great season leading the Lions and their 28t ranked pass rush, but he did have a pretty good Green Bay season finale. Still, he has a tall task facing a Cowboys' run defense that ranks 9th in the league.
Tony Romo had a very good season and he has one of the best big play WR's in the league in Dez Bryant, who led the league in WR TD's, as well as TE Jason Witten. Murray led the league in rushing yards, by a very wide margin, and if the Lions cannot keep him from having a big game Stafford and the offense will have to light up the scoreboard.
In the season finale loss to Green Bay the Lions gave up 225 passing yards and 152 rushing yards.
Dallas: 12-4 SU 10-6 ATS
The Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and they have an Under record of 8-1 in their last 9 road games.
The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 playoff games, and they have an Under record of 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games.
Free Against the Spread Pick
We think that there will be enough scoring opportunities for the Lions to keep this game close.
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