Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots Point Spread Pick

Betting Odds

Point Spread Line: Broncos -3
Moneyline: Broncos -165 / Patriots +145
Over/Under: 55

Time: 4:25 PM EST Sunday, November 2, 2014, CBS

Location: Gillette Stadium (Turf)

Denver Broncos (6-1) vs. New England Patriots (6-2)

This is a rematch of last season's AFC title game and it would not be a shock if they met in the big game this season. The Patriots have won 4 straight and in that span their offense has been playing well averaging 39.5 ppg. Tom Brady has been putting up the numbers and will face a Denver defense, which is much better against the run than the pass.

Tom Brady is 10-6 facing Peyton Manning and that is obviously the big match up in the game. However, the team that plays the better defense facing each future Hall of Fame QB will win the game.

The Patriots are the 3-point underdogs at home, where they are riding a 13-game winning streak.

Manning leads the Broncos and the league's 2nd ranked passing offense that will get a test from the Pats, who rank 2nd in the league in pass defense.

In their last games the Patriots beat the Chicago Bears 51-23 and the Broncos beat the San Diego Chargers 35-21.

The Broncos are 4-3 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 5-2 and the Pats are 4-4 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 6-2.

This season the Pats are 4-0 at home and the Broncos are 1-1 on the road.

Manning has been playing great and it helps to have 2 great WR's in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders and a solid TE in Julius Thomas who leads the team with 9 receiving TD's. While the Patriots have played solid pass D this season they have not faced a team that has a great aerial attack like the Broncos have.

Ronnie Hillman has taken over the starting duties at RB and he has rushed for at least 100 yards in 2 of the last 3 games including the last one. He will face a New England run defense that only ranks 25th in the league.

In the Pats 4-game win streak Brady has been lights out and in the win over the Bears he passed for 354 yards with 5 TD and 0 INT. In the win streak he has not been picked off once and has 14 TD. He has 2 WR's with over 460 receiving yards each and Rob Gronkowski is totally healthy and has been great in the last few games. Denver's pass defense ranks 17th in the league, but their pass rush, led by Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, rank 6th in the league in sacks.

Rookie Jonas Gray, who played well in his first full time duty last week, and Shane Vareen will man the rushing offense, but will face a Denver run defense that is the top-ranked unit in the NFL.

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Denver: 6-1 SU 4-3 ATS
New England: 6-2 SU 4-4 ATS
Key Betting Trends

The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road game, and they have an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.

The Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games, 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and they have an Over record of 37-17-1 in their last 55 home games.

The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against the Broncos.

Sagarin Power Rankings

Broncos: 31.35
Patriots: 25.51

Next Game
Denver at Oakland
New England at Indianapolis

Free Against the Spread Pick

We acknowledge that the Patriots are nearly unbeatable at home, but there is a HUGE edge in the pass defense provided by Denver.The number has fallen to a field goal minus some extra vig at most betting sites and that has us laying the 3 points on the Broncos.
Our Crew's Pick: Take the Denver Broncos -3 -120 at GTBets and get yourself a 100% bonus on your first deposit!

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