Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots Betting Pick

Betting Odds

Opening Line: Patriots -7
Over/Under: 51.5

Time: 4:25 PM EST Sunday October 7, 2012 on CBS

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have had many epic battles over the years, but this will be the first time Manning will be in a bright orange uniform. Both teams won last week to move to 2-2 on the season and both QB's had solid games, so each defense may have to play well or there may be a shootout. If that happens the Pats have the advantage, as they have more weapons on offense and they put up 52 points last week.

Last week the Broncos beat the Oakland Raiders 37-6 and the Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills 52-28.

The Broncos are 2-2 ATS with an O/U record of 2-2 and the Patriots are 3-1 ATS with an O/U record of 2-2.

Manning was stellar in the Raiders game passing for 338 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT. While the Broncos do not have any stars in the WR corps Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are getting it done and each is averaging over 13 yards per catch and both have over 300 receiving yards. Once again the Patriots weakness is their pass defense, which only ranks 25th in the league.

Willis McGahee had 112 rushing yards with 1 TD against the Raiders and the Pats run defense has been solid this season ranking 8th in the league and last week they shut down Buffalo's C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, as the Bills only rushed for 98 yards.

Brady was also stellar last week passing for 340 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT and he was only sacked 1 time. Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd will be a handful for a Denver pass defense that ranks 13th in the league and has lost 2 games with teams with good QB's in Matt Ryan and the Falcons and Matt Schaub and the Texans. Denver has a decent pass rush with 11 sacks on the season and they need to get to Brady like the Cardinals did when they upset the Pats in New England.

Stevan Ridley snapped out of his 2-game slump by rushing for over 100 yards with 2 TD last week, but the Broncos have a better rushing defense than the Bills. Still, in Denver's last loss to the Texans they allowed Adrian Foster to rush for 105 yards.

Betting Trends

The Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, and they have an Over record of 29-14 in their last 43 games.

The Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points, and they have an Over record of 15-7 in their last 22 home games.

ATS Game Pick

The Patriots crushed the Broncos in both of their meetings last season, but we think this is a different Denver team this season. Both teams are 2-2 and in our opinion there isn't much of a difference in quality there fore this line is way over inflated.
Take the Denver Broncos +7