Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Point Spread Pick

Betting Odds

Point Spread Line: Dolphins -5.5
Moneyline: Buffalo +175 / Miami -210
Over/Under: 42

Time: 8:25 PM EST Thursday November 13, 2014 on NFL

Second place in the AFC East is at stake in this Thursday night game where the Dolphins are the 5.5-point home betting favorite. Each team is at 5-4 and trails the 7-2 New England Patriots, so the winner will have the edge in trying to vie for an AFC Wild Card.

Earlier this season at home the Bills crushed the Dolphins 29-10. However, this time around the Buffalo squad is much different with Kyle Orton as the starting QB and the lead rusher in that game for the Bills in C.J. Spiller is injured and will not be playing this Thursday night.

The Dolphins had their 3-game winning streak snapped in their last game and the loss was a costly one with Pro Bowl left tackle Branden Albert out for the season with a knee injury.

In their last games the Bills lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 17-13 and the Dolphins lost to the Detroit Lions 20-16.

The Bills are 4-5 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 2-7 and the Dolphins are 5-4 ATS and have an Over/Under record of 4-5.

This season the Dolphins are 2-2 at home and the Bills are 3-1 on the road.

Ryan Tannehill has had a decent season and has 7 TD and 2 INT in his last 4 games. He is banged up with a shoulder and ankle injury, but he will go in this game. His main target is Mike Wallace, who leads the team in catches and receiving yards and while he is a great deep threat that is the weakness of Tannehill's game. The Miami offensive line must protect their QB facing a Buffalo pass rush, led by Marcell Dareus (10 sacks), that leads the league with 34 sacks.

The Dolphins struggled to run the ball in the loss to Detroit with only 50 rushing yards, but lead RB Lamar Miller was out for that game and is expected to play this Thursday night.

The Bills have a balanced defense ranking 7th defending the pass and 8th defending the pass, but their run D facing Jamaal Charles last week did not look good.

Kyle Orton has been putting up solid numbers since becoming the starting QB and Buffalo has one of the best rookies in the league in WR Sammy Watkins (617 yards 5 TD). The Miami pass defense ranks 2nd in the league, but did not have a great game facing Matthew Stafford and the Lions last week.

The Bills rushed for 111 yards in the loss to the Chiefs even with their top 2 RB's out. Fred Jackson may be back for this game, but if he cannot go Anthony Dixon will be getting another start. The Dolphins rank 10th in the league in run defense and they played well in the Detroit loss only giving up 63 rushing yards.

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Buffalo Bills: 5-4 SU 4-5 ATS
Miami Dolphins: 5-4 SU 5-4 ATS
Key Betting Trends

The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and they have an Under record of 4-0 after a S.U. loss.

The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and they have an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 games.

The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Dolphins.

In the last 5 games between these 2 teams the total has gone Under 4 times.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Buffalo Bills: 20.78
Miami Dolphins: 23.73

Next Game
NY Jets at Buffalo
Miami at Denver

Free Against the Spread Pick

We think that the Bills can score on the Dolphins and while we're not sure that the Fish can score enough to make this competitive there should be enough scoring to send this over the total.
Our Crew's Pick: Take the Bills +5.5 and Over 42 at GTBets and get yourself a 100% bonus on your first deposit!

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