Betting Bad Teams In College Football
It seems like everyone wants to jump on the bandwagon and throw their support for the really good teams, but is that the correct side to be on? In this article we'll examine how betting bad teams is profitable.
In college football you see many games that are huge mismatches. If you are like me you sometimes overlook them and think who cares. I am here to tell you that you should care, because there is money to be made by wagering on some of these fat underdogs.
The reasons may be simple, you have a very good team who is either looking ahead, resting starters or just plain has no incentive to play hard against a team who is maybe getting their one shot to be in the ESPN highlights. Let's also not forget that the bookies know the general betting public loves to bet on favorites so these lines are more inflated than your less popular games.
Letís look at the results for the past 10 years and see how some really big mismatches played out. I will break them down by year to see how 40 point favorites performed each year.
- 1996 3 wins 6 losses
- 1997 5 wins 5 losses
- 1998 3 wins 5 losses
- 1999 3 wins 4 losses
- 2000 4 wins 10 losses
- 2001 1 win 6 losses
- 2002 2 wins 5 losses
- 2003 0 wins 4 losses
- 2004 1 win 2 losses
- 2005 1 win 2 losses
The total record of these teams is a 10 year combined record of 23 wins and 49 losses. In other words, if you were to bet the underdog in these games you would have gone 49-23 hitting at a win rate of 68.1% and would be up 23.7 units (based on betting 1.1 units to win 1 unit per game). These numbers are astounding and better than a professional sports bettor can even expect to bang out.
I realize that there are not a lot of these opportunities that arise each year, but when they do they are certainly a good bet to cash.
Another possibility is to lower the threshold of the spread to underdogs of 35 points or more. I only have the numbers to support the 2005 season but can vouch that the historically, the numbers are consistently profitable.
The record of 35+ point underdogs in 2005 was 11 wins and 8 losses for a winning percentage of 57.9% which is certainly enough to turn a profit.
An important note about this record is that I noticed that 35+ point spread underdogs later in the season were much more profitable than the games in the early part of the season. This is something to keep in mind as later in the year you get into conference matchups and it is much tougher to not look ahead or take a week off mentally.
I will be looking forward to these big mismatches this year and hopefully you will look to back some of these also and we can pick up a few units of profit!
We hope to make note and highlight some of those games right here at Marasoft.com so be sure to bookmark the site and check back for FREE picks and handicapping articles each week from both the college and pros!