Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Betting Pick
Opening Line: Navy -13
Time: 3 PM EST Saturday December 14, 2013 on CBS
Navy has already won the Commander in Chief's Trophy and they can get to the 8-win plateau with a won over an Army team that is only 3-8 and has lost their last 4 games. Navy will face Middle Tennessee State in the Armed Forces Bowl while Army will be watching the bowls from home.
To say this game will be all about the run is an understatement. Army ranks 2nd in the nation in rushing offense and only ranks 123rd in passing offense and Navy ranks 3rd in rushing offense and 122nd in passing offense.
Navy is an independent and they have some solid wins over big conference teams this season in Indiana, Pittsburgh, and San Jose State.
Obviously run defense will be key in this game and while Navy has the better run D in terms of stats it is not by a wide margin. Navy ranks 87th in the nation in run defense and Army ranks 99th.
Last season Navy beat Army 17-13 and the Midshipmen have not lost to the Black Knights since the 2001 season.
In their last games Navy beat San Jose State 58-52 in 3 OT and Army lost to Hawaii 49-42.
Army is 4-7 ATS with an Over/Under record of 5-6 and Navy is 8-3 ATS with an Over/Under record of 5-6.
Army's 2nd leading rusher in Larry Dixon has an ankle injury and may not go, which puts a heavy burden on leading rusher Terry Baggett. He has over 1,000 yards this season and with Dixon out Tony Giovannelli will also get some carries.
Xavier Moss is a 6'2” WR for the Black Knights and he was the leading receiver this season with 413 yards with 1 TD. QB Angel Santiago is the QB, but he rarely goes to the air with only 2 games this season with over 100 passing yards. Maybe Army should test the Navy pass defense, which gave up 440 yards in the win over San Jose State.
Navy QB Keenan Reynolds rushed for 240 yards in the win over San Jose State and set a school record with 7 TD. He also passed for 1,028 yards this season with 8 TD and he is THE guy that the Army defense has to key on. The Army defense gave up 323 passing yard and 285 rushing yards in the loss to Hawaii.Betting Trends
Army is 4-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss, and they have an Under record of 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Navy is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, and they have an Under record of 11-2 in their last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.
In the last 7 games between these 2 teams the posted total has gone Under every time.
Against the Spread Pick
Take the Army Black Knights +13 at Bovada