Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Pick
Opening Line: Alabama -10.5
Time: 3:30 PM EST Saturday November 30, 2013 on CBS
It's pretty simple for the season finale for both teams, as the winner will win the SEC West division and play in the conference title game.
Can anybody beat Alabama? They have the nation's bets defense and while they have blown out opponents this season their last 2 conference games were relatively close winning by 18 points and 13 points respectively.
Auburn has the nation's 2nd ranked rushing offense and they have 7 straight wins after their loss to a ranked LSU team. They are a double-digit underdog at home and while they have a good defense they gave up 38 points in their last game.
In their last games Alabama beat Chattanooga 49-0 and Auburn beat Georgia 45-38.
Alabama is 6-4-1 ATS with an Over/Under record of 5-5-1 and Auburn is 9-2 ATS with an Over/Under record of 6-5.
Auburn will have to run the ball well to win this game, as that is what they do and only rank 104th in the nation in passing yards per game. Alabama has the nation's 4th ranked run defense and if they stuff the run they will win this game. They will be tested by Tre Mason, who has 1,153 yards and 17 TD this season and has rushed for at least 100 yards in 5 of his last 6 games.
Tigers QB Nick Marshall is the team's 2nd leading rusher and after picking up 214 yards on the ground against Tennessee he rushed for 89 yards in the big win over Georgia. While the Tigers are mostly about the run Mason had a solid game in the Georgia game with 229 yards through the air with 1 TD and 0 INT. He will have to make some plays with his arm, but will face a tough Bama pass D that ranks 7th in the nation.
The Tigers will have to play better defense in this game then in the Georgia game where they gave up 415 passing yards and 117 rushing yards.
Alabama has a more balanced attack on offense with A.J. McCarron leading the way. The Tide have a deep WR corps and McCarron had 2 picks in the game previous to Chattanooga, but those were his only 2 INT in his last 7 games. Auburn's pass defense ranks 51st in the nation, but they were torched last week and their pass rush is mediocre.
T.J. Yeldon did not play in the Chattanooga game, but will play in this one and he and Kenyan Drake have combined for 1,683 rushing yard and 20 TD and each is averaging over 6.2 yards per carry.
Auburn has to play a great all-around game on both sides of the ball in order to hand Alabama their first loss of the season.Betting Trends
Alabama is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games, and they have an Over record of 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games.
Auburn is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they have an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 games.
The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games between these 2 teams.
Against the Spread Pick
Take the Auburn Tigers +11 at Bovada