Odds to Win 2015 Super Bowl
Bovada has recently updated its NFL futures odds to win this year's Super Bowl and the following is a closer look at where the value lies in the numbers.
Seattle's run to last year's Super Bowl title ended with an emphatic 43-8 romp over Denver as a two-point underdog. The betting public sees a reversal of fortunes this time around with the Broncos holding the slight edge as 13/2 favorites to win Super Bowl XLIX in early February of next year. The Seahawks' odds to repeat as champions have been set at 7/1.
I have a hard time finding all that much value in either of these two NFL powers simply because historic betting trends are working against them. The last time a team that lost the Super Bowl even got back to the big game the following season was Buffalo in the 1993 season. The Bills went on to lose their fourth-straight Super Bowl that year. As far as Seattle's chances to repeat, you have to go back to 2003 and 2004 when New England won back-to-back titles.
The third-favorite on Bovada's list to win this year's Super Bowl is San Francisco at 15/2. It could be the 49ers' year after three-straight trips to the NFC Championship Game that included an appearance in Super Bowl XLVII against Baltimore. Everything remains in place for another deep run, but the pressure has been dialed-up on fourth-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick to get this team over the hump and I am still not sold that he is up to the task.
The Patriots have been perennial favorites to win the Super Bowl on a yearly basis ever since Bill Belichick took the reins as head coach back in 2000. He has guided this team to five Super Bowls since then but the last two ended in bitter defeats to the New York Giants. Given the fact that they should have a fairly easy run to another AFC East title which should yield a first round bye, there is some solid value in New England's 8/1 odds to add a fourth Super Bowl title to the resume in the Belichick era.
As goes Aaron Rodgers goes the Green Bay Packers. They team is coming off an 8-7-1 record that was actually good enough to win the NFC North last season, but the team went 6-2 when Rodgers was in the lineup and 2-5-1 when he was not. If Rodgers can stay healthy for all 16 regular season games this season then the value in the Packers' 10/1 odds to win their first Super Bowl since 2010 remains pretty high.
The betting public must be pretty high on Chicago's chances to win this year's Super Bowl after the Bears opened the postseason pretty far down Bovada's initial futures odds list. Their most recent odds to win it all this year have shot up to 14/1, which are the sixth-best on the list. Everyone knows just how potent Chicago's offense can be, but it still has some major repair work to do on a defense that was ranked near the bottom of the NFL in points allowed last season.
If you are looking for value in some longer Super Bowl odds you might want to take a closer look at Philadelphia's 25/1 odds to win it all. The team went from four wins in 2012 to a 10-6 record and NFC East title last season under new head coach Chip Kelly. The Eagles have to clean up a defensive secondary that was one of the worst in the league in 2013, but there is little doubt about the offense's ability to score points behind Nick Foles, who could be one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league.