AFC Championship Odds

In this article, we will look at some of the favorites to win the AFC as well as take a look at all of the teams and give their current odds to win the AFC provided by Bovada. At the end, we will recommend some wagering picks. We will break down the teams into four categories -

  1. Home Field Contenders
  2. Playoff Contenders
  3. Could Surprise
  4. Not this year

Home Field Contenders - Denver tops this list at 2-1. They added WR Wes Welker in FA and drafted RB Montee Ball to help an offense that averaged almost 400 yards per game in 2012. The defense lost DE Elvis Dumervil in a fax snafu in the offseason and will be without OLB Von Miller for the first four games due to suspension. The defense collapsed in the divisional round last season as safety Rahim Moore let Ravens WR Jacoby Jones get behind him on a long bomb. It was a disastrous end for a team that finished 13-3 and had home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The loss dropped QB Peyton Manning's playoff record to 9-11 with most of those losses coming at home. New England is next at 4-1 but they have many questions entering 2013. They lost Welker and TE Aaron Hernandez in the offseason and TE Rob Gronkowski is coming off of four surgeries. WR Brandon Lloyd was also released. QB Tom Brady remains and the look for the run game to be the focal point of the offense. Oft-injured WR Danny Amendola was signed and the draft brought help for the defense and the receiver spot. They don't look as good as last season. Houston is at 13-2 and believes this may be their year. FS Ed Reed was added and they get ILB Brian Cushing back from injury. They drafted WR DeAndre Hopkins to be the long-awaited Robin to WR Andre Johnson's Batman and may finally have found their man. They have to prove they can beat a team other than Cincinnati in the playoffs.

Playoff Contenders - Baltimore tops this section at 10-1 and don't fit in the top section due to their expected war of attrition in the AFC North. Despite several losses on defense, they have brought in veterans FS Michael Huff, DE Chris Canty and OLB Daryl Smith and drafted SS Matt Elam and ILB Arthur Brown. They also get some injured players back from last season. Suddenly things don't look so bleak in Charm City. Training camp got off to a bad start as TE Dennis Pitta was lost but this team still has a lot going for them. Cincinnati (12-1) is a rising team and we expect them to contend for the division crown. That would enable them to finally get a playoff game at home. QB Andy Dalton and WR AJ Green continue to grow and the defense is already one of the best in the league. Rookies RB Giovani Bernard and TE Tyler Eifert should have an impact on an emerging offense. Pittsburgh is also at 12-1 but this may be a descending team. Their front seven has aged and the replacements haven't been up to the calibre of the players they have replaced. The loss of WR Mike Wallace will hurt the deep passing game but the team is very excited to have rookie RB Le'Veon Bell and look for him to be the featured back this season after the Steelers' running game languished with a RB by committee. The defense ranked No.1 last season but will be challenged to maintain that ranking in 2013. The last team in this group is the Colts (15-1). They aren't getting a lot of love considering their surprise 2012 season. They lost Off. Co. Bruce Arians to Arizona but replaced him with Stanford OC Pep Hamilton. That was music to QB Andrew Luck's ears but he was very close to Arians. Luck is very comfortable in this system and look for TEs Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener to have big years. FA RB Ahmad Bradshaw could help the running game but he has very brittle feet. Indy used the draft to help the defense and the O-line, two weak spots last year. The schedule is tougher but Luck is special and don't sleep on this team.

Could Surprise - Two teams dominate this section, Miami at 18-1 and Kansas City at 25-1. The Dolphins were very aggressive in FA and the draft and have a promising young QB in Ryan Tannehill. Their defense, which was good in 2012, should be better in 2013 and they have high hopes for RB Lamar Miller. They are the only team in the AFC East that can give the Patriots a run for their money. Despite being 2-14 last season, the Chiefs have generated a lot of buzz in the offseason. They brought in Andy Reid to coach the team and QB Alex Smith to lead them. There are playmakers on offense and the defense featured several Pro Bowlers in 2012. They aren't deep and need big seasons from RB Jamaal Charles and WR Dwayne Bowe.

Not This Year - San Diego is 20-1 but aren't as good as the Chiefs. There is a rebuilding job going on in San Diego and they should be no better than 3rd in the division. The Jets are 40-1 but even those odds are based on a long-lost rep. The offense remains devoid of playmakers and the defense will be without All World CB Darrelle Revis. They will probably lose out to the Bills for 3rd place. The Browns are next at 50-1 and finally seem to be growing. A new brain trust brought in offensive guru Rob Chudzinski to run the team and they traded some lower draft picks for higher picks in 2014, very shrewd. They added some solid vets in FA and will go with QB Brandon Weeden again at QB. Look for him to improve under Chudzinski. The defense is going back to a 3-4 but already have several pieces in place to make that move. They won't be a soft touch for the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers. The Bills and Titans are at 66-1 but both teams have made moves to get better in the offseason. Tennessee radically upgraded their guard position and could have a very good O-line. They have a great RB in CJ2K and some gifted, young receivers. However, a lot depends on QB Jake Locker and a sieve-like defense received little attention. The Bills drafted E.J. Manuel in the first round and WR Robert Woods in the second. That could be a very good duo in the future. RB C.J. Spiller gets his first chance to begin the year as the starter and he is very dangerous. The defense struggled to stop the run again last season and that is a familiar refrain. Buffalo won't go anywhere until they improve this facet of their team. The Jaguars and Raiders bring up the rear at 125-1. Jacksonville revamped their front office and made a good hire in naming Seattle Def. Co. Gus Bradley as head coach. RB Maurice Jones-Drew returns from injury and WR Cecil Shorts III is a dynamic player on the verge of stardom. The Jags drafted five DBs and at least two of them will start. Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert are battling for the starting job in camp. The Raiders have been overhauled more than any other team in the league. GM Reggie McKenzie took over less than two years ago and only 7-8 players are left from the team he took over. This team is very young and inexperienced, the penalty for having almost $50 million in dead money due to horrendous contracts doled out by the late Al Davis. They are going about things in the right way but it will be a long climb back to respectability. Four wins would be a good start.

We feel Denver and New England are flawed and don't feel they will win the AFC. We like Houston to win but Baltimore could be right there. As sleepers, we'll take Cincinnati and Indianapolis and if you are looking for a deep sleeper, we'll side with Miami.

  • Denver Broncos 2/1
  • New England Patriots 4/1
  • Houston Texans 13/2
  • Baltimore Ravens 10/1
  • Cincinnati Bengals 12/1
  • Pittsburgh Steelers 12/1
  • Indianapolis Colts 15/1
  • Miami Dolphins 18/1
  • San Diego Chargers 20/1
  • Kansas City Chiefs 25/1
  • New York Jets 40/1
  • Cleveland Browns 50/1
  • Buffalo Bills 66/1
  • Tennessee Titans 66/1
  • Jacksonville Jaguars 125/1
  • Oakland Raiders 125/1
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